After his little victory jig following Wasps’ heroic 16-13 win over Leicester, what lengths will Lee Blackett go to if his side pulls off a sensational result against Toulouse on Saturday lunchtime? There could be scenes reminiscent of those back in the 1980s when David Pleat deliriously ran across the pitch at Kenilworth Road skipping and jumping like a mad man after seeing his Luton side beat Man City to stay up.
The thing is, we believe Wasps, despite missing 19 players through injury, illness and suspension, have it in them to push the reigning European champions all the way. Yes, they have been forced to shuffle their backline but Jacob Umaga will relish the open space that playing at full-back allows him, and Paolo Odogwu, back after nine months out, has proved in the Premiership that he is more than capable of playing at 13.
Where Wasps could struggle is at scrum-time. They coughed up six scrum penalties in ending Leicester’s unbeaten start to the season and Toulouse will be equally merciless in this area.
However, Toulouse are not invincible away from home, with all four of their defeats this season coming on their travels, and they cross the Channel without their talisman, Antoine Dupont. His replacement Martin Page Relo only made his Top 14 debut in November and his partnership with Romain Ntamack will take time to gel.
Nobody gave Wasps a prayer when they faced Clermont in the Round of 16 in Coventry in last season’s competition but they only lost out by two points in the end. The handicap has been cut, from nine points earlier in the week to seven, but that’s where our money is going.
Strong first half expected from Harlequins
Looking at Friday night, Cardiff are able to field a lot of their Welsh internationals the second time around against Harlequins having put out a callow side in the 43-17 defeat at the Twickenham Stoop. But they showed in losing to Edinburgh last weekend in a horrible performance that it will take some time for them to bed back in. For that reason and the fact that Quins’ starting XV is a lot stronger than their bench, we are backing Quins to get off to a flyer and overcome the half-time handicap of -3.5 points. (4/5, Paddy Power).
Castres v Munster is the other fixture and one that does not look particularly exciting. No sides have met each other more than these two in the pool stages and that familiarity produced a soporific encounter at Thomond Park before Christmas, won 19-13 by Munster. Munster are not an adventurous side under Johan van Graan anyway, and points could once again be at a premium. Only one of the last six matches between the teams has reached 40 points, so under 46.5 points (10/11, Paddy Power) has appeal.
A Roc and a hard place for Bath
Returning to Saturday’s schedule, there is every chance to believe that Leicester’s first European visit to Galway will be a miserable one but backing Connacht at 4/6 does not represent much value. Instead, we’re going to have a wager on La Rochelle to bring Bath quickly back down to earth.
Stuart Hooper’s side ended their season-long winless run with a tense victory against 14-man Worcester last week but the manner of the performance left a lot to be desired and it’s hard to see them deriving much confidence from it, just relief.
La Rochelle is the last place you want to go to when you’re struggling for form and down on your luck with injuries, and all the noises coming out of The Rec week suggested they weren’t that keen to make the trip. Whilst the young Bath backs have come out of the season with some credit, it is up front where we fear for Bath, even on the handicap. Giving up 31 points is a lot for La Rochelle to contend with but Bath’s leaky defence and lack of backbone for the fight should see the French side home.
